Sun Zi Thinks Trump is a Laughingstock, Part 1: Washington’s Strategic Blunders

By Jan van der Putten

In the American-Israeli war against Iran, Trump has done everything wrong that he possibly could, Xi Jinping rightly believes. This is the first part of a diptych about the Iran war. The second part describes how China is profiting immensely from Trump’s lost war.

The Wisdom of Sun Zi’s versus the Impulse of Trump

If the ancient Chinese strategist Sun Zi taught the world anything, it’s that the greatest victory can be achieved by not fighting a war. In their campaign against Iran, Donald Trump and his Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, ignore this wisdom entirely. Had they known anything about strategy, they would have left Iran alone or devised a completely different plan. Instead, Trump allowed himself to be dragged into war by his Israeli friend, Benjamin Netanyahu. From a distance, a man who does know everything about Sun Zi looks on mockingly: Xi Jinping.

Chinese Flexing

At first glance, China also seems to disregard Sun Zi’s 2,500-year-old lesson. Xi is rapidly building a superior military and is fond of saber-rattling. Consider the “muscle-flexing” with which China asserts its claims over Taiwan, the South China Sea, a group of Japanese islands, and territories on the Indian border. These claims are non-negotiable, labeled as China’s ‘core interests’. Consider also the violence with which the Chinese regime tries to assimilate ethnic minorities in its own country. Foreign criticism is dismissed as ‘intolerable interference in China’s internal affairs’.

Xi as Opportunistic Peacemaker

In foreign wars and conflicts, however, Chinese ‘core interests’ are not at stake. Xi generally dislikes these wars, as they can seriously damage Chinese interests. He has no desire for the role American presidents have played for years: the global policeman. However, this rule of detachment does not apply if China can benefit. This includes selling weapons to a country at war, like Sudan or Myanmar, or playing the peacemaker – as seen in the 2023 reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This role is intended to boost Xi’s international image as a ‘Prince of Peace’. Unfortunately, that Saudi-Iranian accord proved paper-thin. In the current Iran war, the two are sworn enemies once again.

Housecleaning in the People’s Liberation Army

Since the war with Vietnam in 1979, China has had no armed international conflict. The deadly skirmishes on the Indo-Chinese border in 2020 do not count from a Chinese perspective, as they involved ‘core interest’. This long lack of battlefield experience has not served the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) well. It became a state within the state where everything was for sale. Military procurement netted the leading officers colossal bribes, and the ‘price list’ for promotion to a higher rank and thus to a higher income was steep. When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he began cleaning these ‘Augean stables’, a process that continues today. His anti-corruption campaign has cost 90% of top generals and six of the seven members of the highest military governing body their jobs – and often their freedom. Even an old family friend fell into disgrace. The same happened to Ministers of Defense and generals appointed by Xi himself. Increasingly, this permanent campaign serves to eliminate high-ranking chiefs who no longer enjoy the absolute trust of the ‘Great Leader’ under the guise of fighting corruption.

Toward a World-Class Military in 2049

Xi has thoroughly reformed the armed forces. The operational structure of the army has changed, the number of men has been reduced from three million to two million, the armed forces, especially the navy, have been modernized and the nuclear arsenal has been expanded, high-tech weapons have been developed, while a large-scale indoctrination campaign focuses on military discipline and should ensure that the Party regains full military control. Xi wants the People’s Liberation Army to become a “world-class army” in 2049, when the People’s Republic celebrates its centenary, in which AI will play a central role.

Conquering without a fight

The military must adequately represent China’s territorial “core interests” if the current salami tactics – gradually increasing aggression until almost imperceptibly annexation has become a fait accompli – are unsuccessful. It should also deter foreign enemies in such a way that a war is prevented. Xi probably knows Sun Zi’s The Art of War like the back of his hand. He knows that for a victory you should not act exactly as the American and Israeli aggressors have done. So you have to be well informed about the enemy, you have to understand his strategy and set your own goals clearly. Be a master of stratagems and diversion. Try as much as possible to win a war not by force of arms, but by cleverness. You have to be patient, and if the armed struggle has become inevitable, only strike when the moment is most propitious. Keep the war as short as possible and think in advance about how you want to end it.

Precious trick

In their “preemptive” attack on Iran, Trump and Netanyahu ignored all those basic rules of Sun Zi. The only strategy Trump knows is contained in his 1987 book The Art of the Deal, an art that has nothing to do with Sun Zi’s The Art of War . The result in Iran is there. According to the Pentagon, the war cost the US $25 billion until the end of April, but according to real estimates, the real cost was hundreds of billions or even trillions of dollars. The Iranian regime has undoubtedly been hit hard, but it has not been defeated. On the contrary, it has only strengthened strategically and has found an all-powerful weapon in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Stuck in the swamp

The murderous attacks have given the Iranian regime a reason to build an atomic bomb to ensure its survival, just like the North Korean regime. Thus, Trump and Netanyahu will achieve the exact opposite of what they wanted: destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Trump is now turning around to free himself from the Iranian quagmire with his head held high. Netanyahu cannot accept defeat either, but he wants to resume the bombing of Iran. It is logical that the two no longer get along. Xi lets the aggressive American and Israeli muddlers do their thing undisturbed. Because, as another great strategist, Napoleon, said: ‘Never intervene when your enemy is blundering.’ So let him dig his own grave quietly, so that he unwittingly passes victory to you.

The smiling third

Now, the Iran war is not a direct confrontation between the US and China, although some geopolitical analysts believe that Trump’s attack was essentially intended to contain China’s influence. They point to Iran’s economic dependence on China (ninety percent of Iranian oil goes to the People’s Republic), the promised Chinese mega-investments in Iran and the shared aversion to the US. Logic has it that Trump did not want to provoke China so shortly before his visit to Xi. But it wouldn’t be the first time that logic and Trump don’t seem to tolerate each other. Sun Zi would have laughed scornfully.

Jan van der Putten is a writer and journalist, who previously served, among other things, as a correspondent in China. His latest book is: Time of Illusions: My Little History of the World, published by Querido Facto